The Forge Calculator
Calculate forging success rates, expected value, and optimize your upgrade path in The Forge Roblox.
Input Parameters
Results
Expected Value Inputs
EV Analysis
Material Cost Inputs
Cost Breakdown
How to Use This Calculator
Select Item Tier
Choose the current tier of your item. Higher tiers have higher base values.
Choose Heat Level
Higher heat = higher rewards but also higher risk of destroying your item.
Set Luck Multiplier
If you have luck potions active, adjust the multiplier accordingly.
Heat Level Reference
| Heat Level | Success Rate | Destroy Risk | Stat Multiplier | Recommended For |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Heat | 90% | 0% | 1.1x | Safe upgrades, valuable items |
| Medium Heat | 70% | 10% | 1.3x | Balanced risk/reward |
| High Heat | 50% | 25% | 1.6x | Risk takers, duplicates |
| Extreme Heat | 30% | 50% | 2.0x | YOLO, expendable items |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is The Forge in Roblox?
The Forge is a popular Roblox mining and forging simulator where players mine ores, craft items, and forge weapons/armor. The forging system uses heat levels that affect success rates and stat multipliers, with higher heat offering better rewards but also higher risk of destroying items.
How does the success rate calculator work?
Our calculator uses the base success rate for your chosen heat level, then applies any luck multiplier bonuses from potions. The formula is: Final Success = Base Success × (1 + (Luck × 0.05)). This gives you the exact probability of a successful forge.
What heat level should I use for forging?
For valuable items you can't afford to lose, use Low Heat (90% success, 0% destroy risk). For duplicates or expendable items, High or Extreme Heat gives better stat multipliers (1.6x-2.0x). Use our EV calculator to determine if higher heat is worth the risk.
What is Expected Value (EV) in forging?
Expected Value represents the average outcome of a forge attempt over many tries. A positive EV means forging is profitable on average, while negative EV suggests you should avoid that forge or use a different heat level. Our EV calculator helps you make mathematically optimal decisions.
How do luck potions affect forging success?
Luck potions increase your success rate by 5% per luck multiplier level. A 10x luck potion would add +50% to your base success rate. Combined with Low Heat (90% base), you can achieve near-perfect success rates.
What materials are needed to forge each tier?
Material costs increase with tier: Common (100), Uncommon (500), Rare (2,000), Epic (10,000), Legendary (50,000), Mythic (250,000). Use our Material Cost calculator to estimate total resources needed for tier upgrades.
What is the best forging strategy for mythic items?
For Mythic items, always use Low Heat (90% success, 0% destroy) unless you have duplicates. The value of Mythic items (250,000+) makes the risk of High/Extreme Heat not worth the extra stat multiplier. Patience and safety is the optimal strategy.
How many attempts does it take to upgrade tiers?
Expected attempts depend on heat level: Low Heat averages 1.1 attempts per tier, Medium Heat averages 1.4 attempts, High Heat averages 2 attempts, and Extreme Heat averages 3.3 attempts. Our calculator factors in failure recovery when computing total materials needed.
Complete Forging Guide (January 2026)
Understanding the Forging System
The Forge's forging system is the core progression mechanic where players upgrade their weapons and armor to higher tiers. Each forge attempt uses materials and has a chance to succeed or fail based on the heat level you choose. Understanding the math behind forging is essential for efficient progression.
Heat Levels Explained
There are four heat levels in The Forge, each with different risk/reward tradeoffs:
- Low Heat (90% / 0%) - Safest option with no destroy risk. Best for valuable items.
- Medium Heat (70% / 10%) - Balanced approach with moderate risk and 1.3x stat bonus.
- High Heat (50% / 25%) - For risk-takers. 1.6x stat bonus but significant destroy chance.
- Extreme Heat (30% / 50%) - Maximum risk/reward. 2.0x stats but 50% destroy chance.
Optimal Forging Strategy
The mathematically optimal strategy depends on your item's value and replaceability:
- Mythic/Legendary items: Always use Low Heat. The value is too high to risk.
- Epic/Rare duplicates: Medium or High Heat is viable - faster progression.
- Common/Uncommon: Use whatever heat you want - easy to replace.
- With Luck Potions: Higher luck enables riskier heat levels safely.
Pro Tips for Efficient Forging
- Save luck potions for Mythic tier forging attempts
- Farm materials during 2x events for faster progression
- Use the EV calculator to determine breakeven points
- Keep duplicate items for risky high-heat experiments
- Check The Forge codes for free materials